TV ads don’t work, and attack ads backfire.

A definitive new “big data” study shows that running negative ads actually decreases your vote share and turnout, even when you outspend your opponent.

In competitive areas, television advertising has virtually no effect on vote share.

Television advertising only increases your vote share when you do all of the following:

1. run only positive ads,
2. outspend your opponent and
3. run them where you are already far ahead or behind.

Running attack ads actually reduces your own turnout.

Graphic by Antonia Scatton. All rights reserved.